Future of the College Football Playoff hinges on touchy subject among power conferences: Automatic qualifiers

SANDESTIN, Florida -- The College Football Playoff's power players are locked in a showdown on the future format of the postseason tournament, and High Noon is fast approaching.

The CFP's executives have conducted several meetings over the last several months to attempt to finalize the format for the 2026 postseason and beyond. The lack of unanimity in discussions has led to an alliance between the ACC and Big 12 to counter the Big Ten and SEC's power. The nature of the arrangement, as was described to CBS Sports, sets the stage for a showdown between two wildly different 16-team formats.

During an in-person meeting of power conference heavy-hitters on May 15, reps from the ACC and Big 12 presented a 16-team playoff proposal that would reward automatic berths to the five highest-ranked conference champions with 11 at-large spots. Sources tell CBS Sports the ACC and Big 12 prefer the 5+11 format over the one floated by the Big Ten and SEC: a 4-4-2-2-1 format that would reward four automatic-qualifiers for the Big Ten and SEC, two for the ACC and Big 12, one for the highest ranked Group of Six champion and three at-large teams.

The Big Ten and SEC's discussions have happened internally and have yet to be socialized formally with the four autonomous conferences or the CFP Management Committee. 

"We're not committed at this point to something," SEC commissioner Greg Sankey said Monday evening, the day before his conference's annual spring meetings.

One factor behind the Big Ten and SEC's format preference is that it paves the way for lucrative playoff play-in games in each power conference. Both the Big Ten and SEC would send their top two teams -- both in the conference championship game -- to the playoff, and would schedule play-in games between the No. 3 and No. 6 teams and the No. 4 and No. 5 teams for the final two spots. Three games on conference championship weekend would create more broadcast inventory for each conference, resulting in bigger payouts from television partners during the weekend of conference championships in early December.

The Big Ten and SEC, which have combined to field 16 of the last 20 national champions, understand they have absolute control over the future of the CFP. Hypothetically, they believe could jam through a 16-team format with four automatic qualifiers each if push came to shove. That point has not arrived just yet. Sources at the Big Ten offices say the conference wants the ACC and Big 12 to be on board with it and the SEC's preferred format. 

A source familiar with the playoff discussions said the ACC and Big 12 are "prepared to fight" and will "not lay down." 

The CFP's executives are expected to meet in person on June 18.

The billion-dollar question is whether that format is fair to the other eight conferences outside the SEC and Big Ten. The SEC's counter? 

"If you actually go back and do the research, that kind of format could cost us positions depending on the number of teams," Sankey said Monday, on the eve of the SEC's annual spring business meetings. "I don't see the critics actually digging in to understand that reality. I don't see the critics actually analyzing, like I just described, how schedules are evaluated. Critics can run to the microphones and share their opinions. We're trying to find a format to determine -- whatever number it is -- the best teams in college football. Where we are right now is we have used a political process inside a room to come to decisions about football. We should be using football information to come to football decisions."

To Sankey's point, the Big Ten and SEC would have averaged five-plus teams in the top 16 of the CFP's rankings since its inception in 2014. Four AQs could negatively affect those conferences, based on previous years.

Sankey said Monday the SEC supporting a 16-team format has more traction than he anticipated, but that it was still only interested -- and not yet committed -- to playoff expansion that would include multiple annual automatic qualifiers for his conference. 

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SEC administrators are scheduled this week to discuss whether to move from eight conference games to nine in football, with the future format of the CFP likely determining whether that move will be made. A 16-team format with multiple qualifiers for the SEC would likely push the nine-game schedule across the finish line, sources said, because it would allow for more leeway for losses in the regular season. 

The Big Ten has long been the biggest proponent of a move to automatic qualifiers, but commissioner Tony Petitti's reluctance to discuss much, if anything, about the discussions and negotiations publicly puts more of the explanation onus on Sankey. The SEC commissioner somehow became the public face of an idea he didn't originate, which has led to criticism and pressure he is well aware of, based on some thinly veiled shots toward the ACC and Big 12. 

"Look at the track record," Sankey said. "We didn't need 12. If we stayed at four, we would have had half the four last year. I don't need lectures from others about the good of the game. I don't lecture others about the good of the game and coordinate press releases about the good of the game."

Sankey's crossfire comes on the heels of last week, when the 10 conference commissioners in the FBS, plus Notre Dame's athletics director, unanimously approved a move to "straight seeding" for the upcoming season of the CFP. The format will no longer automatically reward first-round byes to conference champions, and it required unanimous approval to pass. The ACC and Big 12's commissioners told CBS Sports their decision to vote for straight seeding was not necessarily good for their conferences, but it was good for college football.

"I hope what's best for college football continues to be the priority in any discussions moving forward," Big 12 commissioner Brett Yormark told CBS Sports last week.

As the public war of words begins, battle lines are being drawn in the boardroom. How far the CFP's power players are willing to take any battle will not only determine the fate of the playoff, but perhaps also the future of college sports. 

The widening revenue gap facing the ACC and Big 12 has sparked internal strife in those conferences, notably the ACC, where Florida State and Clemson evaluated an exit strategy and took their conference to court, which ultimately led the ACC to agree to share more money from the conference's media revenue distribution.

Meanwhile, the landmark House v. NCAA antitrust settlement is hanging over the heads of college athletics. A final approval from a federal judge this week will allow conferences to share up to $20.5 million of revenue with players, a steep accounting change for athletic departments already operating at or near a negative every year. 

In the interim, the CFP has taken center stage as the conference leaders peacock. 

John Talty contributed to this report